Analysing, reviewing and recording weather patterns in Dayboro since 2004. Challenging the main stream climate change thought, by being objective and providing facts.

Multiple regression analysis of anthropogenic and heliogenic climate drivers, and some cautious forecasts

ABS T RAC T
The two main drivers of climate change on sub-Milankovic time scales are re-assessed by means of a multiple regression analysis. Evaluating linear combinations of the logarithm of carbon dioxide concentration and the geomagnetic aa-index as a proxy for solar activity, we reproduce the sea surface temperature (HadSST) since the middle of the 19th century with an adjusted R2 value of around 87 per cent for a climate sensitivity (of TCR type) in the range of 0.6K until 1.6K per doubling of CO2. 

The solution of the regression is quite sensitive: when including data from the last decade, the simultaneous occurrence of a strong El Niño on one side and low aa-values on the other side lead to a preponderance of solutions with relatively high climate sensitivities around 1.6 K. If those later data are excluded, the regression leads to a significantly higher weight of the aa-index and a correspondingly lower climate sensitivity going down to 0.6 K. The plausibility of such low values is discussed in view of recent experimental and satellite-borne measurements. 

We argue that a further decade of data collection will be needed to allow for a reliable distinction between low and high sensitivity values. Based on recent ideas about a quasi-deterministic planetary synchronization of the solar dynamo, we make a first attempt to predict the aa-index and the resulting temperature anomaly for various typical CO2 scenarios. 

Even for the highest climate sensitivities, and an unabated linear CO2 increase, we predict only a mild additional temperature rise of around 1K until the end of the century, while for the lower values an imminent temperature drop in the near future, followed by a rather flat temperature curve, is prognosticated.

So yes, global warming is NOT happening. Link to full paper here

Snow gone in AU by 2020

No more snow in AU

When I read that article I cried…. I poored my eyeballs out…. NOOOOO not the snow. I love skiing, we generally go every second year, enjoying the snow. 

But MSM says it is a thing of the past, no need to deny it. If the MSM says it is so…. well then it is so. Not only that 97% of science agrees that climate change is causing the planet to warm. But is it???

 

2020 and there is still snow in AU

Ok, sorry I use the same tactics as the MSM and hype things up, still, snow is snow. Science is science, no grey here. Just black and white. 

2020 Snow Spencers Creek

Yes 2020 saw less snow than 2019, and the season looked a bit shorter. Still snow was there and plenty. 

How can you believe in the science if they predict future, that is not science that is more a religion thing. Also all the hype, as this example shows, needs to be dialled down and become more realistic. 

Gone are the days that journalism was honest, fact-checking and non-biased. Journalists nowadays are just cut and paste folks in my view. No fact-checking going on at all….. (exceptions confirm the rule, I do generalise a bit here)

I remember a conversation with someone on social media, he was a journalist. His statement was that I was not allowed to say things about the climate because I was not a journalist. Journalist is the only authority on Climate Change…. Yup…..that is working out ok I guess. 

No where to go and only 7 years left on this planet.

What a load of rubbish, but folks believe it and that is the main goal of the Greta’s, AL’s, Klaus’s, Bill’s and now “sleepy” Joe. 

I think it was 19th of Sept that as part of Climate Week in New York, they put up a clock….. not a normal clock but a very special one… it counts down to howling we have before we all die and it is too late to make good on climate change. 

 

World Climate Clock

On Saturday 19th Sept, at 3:20 p.m., the clock suddenly said: “The Earth has a deadline” which was followed by the numbers — 7:103:15:40:07. They are trying to brainwash the weak-minded. Fear is a great motivator and driver to push folks into the direction you want. It pre-occupies their minds to focus on what you want people to focus on. We now have just 7 years, 103 days, 15 hours, 40 minutes, and just 7 seconds until we die.

1932 the same claim was made.

There have been so many such predictions it is laughable. In 1932, they claimed the very same scenario that the Glaciers would melt and the water would rise to 15th floor in New York City.

Just in 2007, they were saying “ALL” Arctic Ice will be gone by 2012. I think it is still there. Al Gore’s “armageddon” expired in 2016, with nothing taking place.

Back in January 2006, when promoting his film “An Inconvenient Truth,” Gore declared that unless we took “drastic measures” to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, the world would reach a “point of no return” in a mere ten years. He called it a “true planetary emergency.”

Well, the ten years passed in 2016, and we’re still here.

North Pole Ice Free in 5yrs

On December 13 & 14, 2009, professor, prophet, and soothsayer Al Gore predicted the North Polar Ice Cap could be completely ice free within the next five to seven years.

Gore made his prediction at COP15 Copenhagen which ran from Dec 7 – Dec 18, 2009, where he repeatedly referenced “state-of-the-art” computer modeling to suggest that the north polar ice cap may lose all of its ice by 2014.

“Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during some of the summer months, could be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years,” Gore claimed.

“Join me in asking president Obama and the US Senate to set a deadline of 22 April for final action in the US Senate,” he said. “I do not believe we can wait till next November or December.”

The Guardian wrote on Dec 16, 2009 in an article entitled “Al Gore rallies the troops in Copenhagen“:

[Gore] kept up the pace by calling for the international community to sign up to a fully fledged climate change treaty by July 2010 – and then announcing that Mexico was prepared to host a deal-making summit.

He scolded rich countries for demanding the developing world offer evidence of emissions cuts while at the same time trying to inflate the funds they were prepared to offer poor countries to deal with climate change. And he was just as tough on activists who have embraced him as a hero, demanding they set aside their pride and their principles and embrace a deal – no matter how imperfect. 

He said he recognized their frustration with the glacial pace of negotiations. He agreed that cap-and-trade schemes to cut carbon emissions were an imperfect solution – Gore confessed to favoring a carbon tax – but the current efforts for a deal were the best prospect of avoiding catastrophic climate change.

And there was no trace of sympathy for opponents of action on climate change. Gore began with a brief run-through of the latest science on melting of the Arctic ice cap, evidence he said “only reckless fools would ignore.”

The year 2020 is now all-but over, Al, and DMI data reveals that at its lowest point Arctic sea ice volume this summer barely dipped below 5,000 km3, and has then by September had started growing at record-early pace. 

According to both the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) and the National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Arctic Sea Ice has turned an astonishing corner these past few weeks. (September 2020)

Rain and Evapotranspiration in Dayboro

Rain and Evapotranspiration in Dayboro​. We finally receive some of that well-needed rain, personally, I had enough rain now as at the time of writing my grass seeds start their migration to the neighbours…. something I am not too impressed with. The neighbours will have a nice green lush lawn at the end of this month for sure.

Although a big rain event was predicted by the BOM and a much lesser by me I have to admit more rain is coming from this system then I expected. Still way less then 100mm daily, which is good we do not need flooding and stuff.

It also prompted me to have a look at the rainfall versus Evapotranspiration. Yes, it is a real word.

Evapotranspiration

Evapotranspiration (ET), and the usual FB clowns will go stir crazy on this, is “Evapotranspiration (ET) is a term used to describe the sum of evaporation and plant transpiration from the Earth’s land surface to the atmosphere. Evaporation accounts for the movement of water to the air from sources such as the soil, canopy interception, and waterbodies. Transpiration accounts for the movement of water within a plant and the subsequent loss of water as vapour through stomata in its leaves.”

We all know what rainfall is… or precipitation as it is known among the community. 

The definition the BOM gives is 

Evapotranspiration is not the same as evaporation. Evapotranspiration is the term used to describe the part of the water cycle which removes liquid water from an area with vegetation and into the atmosphere by the processes of both transpiration and evaporation.

Evaporation occurs when liquid water is converted to water vapour and hence removed from a surface, such as a lake, soil or wet vegetation, into the air. Transpiration occurs when water in plant tissues is lost to the atmosphere, predominantly through the small opening in the leaves of plants and grasses called stomata.

By knowing the rate of water loss from a region farmers will be better placed to efficiently manage the available water for their crop.”

You can find the Evapotranspiration definition, what it is used for and how it is calculated on their website. 

 

Rain and Evapotranspiration in Dayboro​

Looking at the rainfall we had this year (to date) and the amount of ET we had the net value of moisture is quite low. Goes to show that we need a lot of rain to replenish all we use. 

Residents in Norway have been reeling from the country’s coldest summer in nearly 30 to 60 years. Early in July, more than 10 m (32 feet) of snow accumulated in parts of the southern region, which was unprecedented for this time of the year.

According to state meteorologists, Oslo has recorded an average temperature of just 14.7 °C (58.5 °F) this month, which was the coldest in nearly 30 years.

Meanwhile, Bergen’s average has been even colder at 12.8 °C (55 °F). Trondheim hit 12.1 °C (53.8 °F), the coldest for almost 60 years.

“In Oslo, we have to go back to 1993 to find such low average temperatures as we’ve had this summer, and back to 1996 in Bergen. In Trondheim, we have to go all the way back to 1962,” state meteorologist Gunnar Livik confirmed.

Snow has also been covering the mountains, with Folldall hitting a below-freezing temperature of -4 °C (24.8 °F).

Residents in Norway have been reeling from the country’s coldest summer in nearly 30 to 60 years. Early in July, more than 10 m (32 feet) of snow accumulated in parts of the southern region, which was unprecedented for this time of the year.

According to state meteorologists, Oslo has recorded an average temperature of just 14.7 °C (58.5 °F) this month, which was the coldest in nearly 30 years.

Meanwhile, Bergen’s average has been even colder at 12.8 °C (55 °F). Trondheim hit 12.1 °C (53.8 °F), the coldest for almost 60 years.

“In Oslo, we have to go back to 1993 to find such low average temperatures as we’ve had this summer, and back to 1996 in Bergen. In Trondheim, we have to go all the way back to 1962,” state meteorologist Gunnar Livik confirmed.

Snow has also been covering the mountains, with Folldall hitting a below-freezing temperature of -4 °C (24.8 °F).

norway-snow-july-2020

Image credit: Zdenek Nejedly

It was warm in June when the summer season started, but going into July, it has been unusually cold in Norway.

The country entered the month with unprecedented accumulated snow of more than 10 m (32 feet) in parts of the southern region.

“We have not had such [heavy] snowfall as this year,” said Knut Kinne, watercourse technical manager at BKK who conducted clearing operations in the mountains.

“We had a clear change in the weather at the end of June,” Livik continued. “July has been a cold month with lots of unstable weather.”

I hope Dr. Greta is taking notice…..

This May, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere reached 417.2. Despite #coronagate it climbed 2.4ppm higher than the peak of 414.8ppm in 2019, according to readings from the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii. (Yes, that is the official crowd looking at this). 

In other words, there’s nothing we can do to stop rising CO2 levels, and we’re all doomed — I mean, what another takeaway can there be?

We’ve all just taken part in what is effectively the most significant scientific experiment in history — the shutdown of the global economy. We grounded those heinous aeroplanes, closed them filthy factories; and locked all our gas-guzzling vehicles in the garage.

Dr. Greta will be proud.

We’ve done precisely what the local and global alarmists have been crying out for us to do. H.ll we did not strike for a day (Friday school strike as ordered by Dr Greta) we did it for a quarter of a YEAR.  

WE PUT INDUSTRY, AND OUR MODERN WAY OF LIFE ON PAUSE and in the process slashed our daily emissions of carbon dioxide. 

For what…? 

What was the impact…? 

According to the world’s official CO2 measuring station –located on top of the Hawaii’s Mauna Loa volcano (no comment)– CO2 carried on its merry-march up, to 417.2 parts per million in May, 2.4 ppm higher than the peak of 414.8 ppm in 2019.

“People may be surprised to hear that the response to the coronavirus outbreak hasn’t done more to influence CO2 levels,” said Ralph Keeling, professor at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Oddly enough they say that CO2 levels can fluctuate… .. WHAAAAT?

The Guardian (considered by especially the local environmental experts as the single source of truth on the net), been saying that CO2 cannot and shall not fluctuate. 

Thank goodness the rise of CO2 is caused by man.

Furthermore –and perhaps more crucially– this latest data point from Mauna Loa has inflicted some severe damage to the widely-held belief that rising CO2 levels is man’s doing and man’s doing alone.

Levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide have varied tremendously throughout the ages, from as high as 7,000 ppm to as low as 150 ppm–and not so widely-known is that it’s only at those lower levels where life struggles.

Data from ice cores and marine sediments reveal that there is no correlation whatsoever between atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the temperature at the earth’s surface.

But even as the correlation between man’s activity and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels has its feathers seriously ruffled before our very eyes, everything is of course still ALL OUR FAULT. The ability to think-critically and question reality using the information available is no longer permitted. “Stay scared” is the message from on high, and keep paying that carbon tax.

According to a recent article in king-of-the-scaremongers the Guardian, this global economic slowdown “will make no appreciable difference to the world’s ability to meet the goals of the Paris agreement, and keep global heating below the threshold of 2C that scientists say is necessary to stave off catastrophic effects.”

The ruse is clearer than ever.

Please don’t fall for bogus political agendas — instead, question them, as the Global Temperature is now at the same levels as 1997.

Dayboro June Cold Weather

AUSTRALIA BROKE 110 LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN MAY, VS JUST THE 7 RECORD HIGHS — WAKE UP SHEEPLE

Australian’s have suffered an historically EARLY start to Winter 2020, with wave after wave of brutal Antarctic air riding anomalously-far north on the back of a meridional (wavy) jet stream flow–a phenomenon associated with a sharp decline in solar activity.

Even according to NOAA’s own warm-mongering, UHI-ignoring Global Data Toolthe Aussie continent set a total of 110 new daily record LOW temperatures during the month of May (to the 29th), versus just the paltry 7 for record HIGH.

Unfortunately, and acting as a further depressant on society’s ability to think-critically, this data-led FACT will be excluded from any mainstream media article, as it will from any science teacher’s Monday morning sermon

The imparting of knowledge is not the aim of these institutions. The MSM and education system is bought and paid for, and if you haven’t figured that out by now (with all this COVID nonsense) then there’s probably no hope for you anyway. Whatever agenda those-on-high want pushed, they have the perfect platform to push it. And the dutiful many that have been molded from as young as of 4 or 5 into compliant, brainless sacks of meat & bones will toe whatever line is drawn for them, and then themselves will police that line, reporting others that step over it as sacrilegious heretics — those brave black sheep among us that do battle against the grain are condemned, slandered, de-platformed, and reported to the appropriate authorities, without even a sniff of their day in court.

Now do not jump on the bandwagon of GSM (Grand Solar Minimum) as it is portraited in the MSM. Sure it is going to get a bit colder as part of the solar cycles and weather will be a bit … well odd. We will NOT slip into an ice age or mini ice age. What we do get is shorter grow periods due to the degree days….. 

Anyway.. it is coldish and will be for a little while. Look at the bright side…. Northern UK might see SNOW… and it is SUMMER there.

27 Simple Bullet Points Prove Global Warming by the Sun, not CO2
By a Geologist for a Change

  1 TThe IPCC (United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has no geologists among the 100s of authors of its last major report (2013-14) and at most 1 in the next (2022; see my Tech. Note 2019-10). Thus IPCC focuses on only the last 150 years (since thermometer records began, c. 1850), yet Earth is 30 million (sic) times older, 4.5 billion years! Geologists know Earth has always warmed and cooled. Climate change is perfectly normal.

  2 The IPCC’s very existence relies on public belief in man-made or ‘anthropogenic’ global warming (AGW) by CO2. IPCC authors, mostly government & university researchers, are biased by strong vested interests in AGW (publications; continuance of salaries; research grants). Similarly, universities have sacrificed their impartiality by hosting institutes mandated to confirm & act on AGW, e.g. Grantham Institute (Imperial College), Tyndall Centre.

  3 The often-parroted ‘97% consensus among scientists that global warming is man’s fault’ (CO2 emissions) is untrue. It refers in fact to surveys of just a relatively small group of ‘climate scientists’ (a new type of generalist scientist, with strong incentives for bias; see Bullets 2 & 15), moreover only those who are ‘actively publishing’.

  4 No educated person ‘denies’ modern global warming; it’s been measured (Bullet 11). ‘Global warming deniers’ is a deceitful term for man-made global warming doubters & deniers (most of Earth’s real scientists?).

  5 CO2 is a ‘greenhouse gas’. But as CO2 rises, its theoretical heat-trapping ability sharply declines, already 67% ‘used up’ at 100 parts per million (ppm) CO2, 84% at 300ppm (NB 275ppm when industrial CO2 output began; Bullet 8), 87% at 400ppm (today 415ppm, or 0.04%) and >99% at 1000ppm.
Moreover, Climate Sensitivity (CS), the warming due to doubling CO2, is guesswork. IPCC ‘estimates’ CS from climate models (circular reasoning) as probably between 1.5 & 4.5 (300% contrast!), but models are defective (Bullet 6). In reality CS might be very near zero, perhaps explaining why up to 7,000ppm in Phanerozoic time (Bullet 7) did not cause ‘runaway’ warming.

  6 IPCC climate models are so full of assumptions as to be useless or (worse) misleading, e.g. forecast 1995-2015 warming was 2-3 times too high! Bullet 19 gives another drastic failure.
Even Wiki (2019) admits: “Each model simulation has a different guess at processes that scientist don’t understand sufficiently well”.
Models also dismiss the sun’s fluctuations & omit the multi-decade delay between these & the resulting warming or cooling. This time-lag is due to ocean thermal inertia (mixing-time), grossly underestimated by IPCC (Bullets 15, 21)

  7 For ~75% of the last 550 million years, CO2 was 2 to 15 times higher than now. Evolution flourished, with CO2 enabling plant photosynthesis, the basis of all life. Extinction events due to overheating by CO2 are unknown.

  8 Through the last 12,000 years (our current ‘Holocene’ interglacial epoch), CO2 was a mere 250 to 290 ppm, near plant-starvation level (about 150ppm), until about 1850 when industrial CO2 emissions began, making CO2 climb steeply. CO2 today is still only 415ppm, or 0.01%, i.e. less than half of one-tenth of 1% of our atmosphere.

  9 Until man began adding CO2 about 1850, warming (determined from ‘proxies’ like tree rings) since the 1700AD Little Ice Age nadir was accompanied by slowly rising CO2 (measured in ice cores). A simple explanation is the well-known release of CO2 by warming ocean water (decreasing its CO2-holding capacity).

10 Other evidence, besides Bullet 9, that rising CO2 is a consequence, not cause, of global warming is Humlum’s demonstration that changes in CO2 growth rate lag behind changes in warming rate (by about 1 year); and also …
11 Since the ~1850 start of man’s CO2 additions, thermometer-measured global warming (1.3 degrees C) was interrupted by frequent minor coolings of 1-3yrs (not all attributable to mega-volcano ‘winters’) & two substantial coolings (0.2 deg) of 30yrs (1878-1910, 1944-1976), plus the 1998-2013 ‘warming pause’ (Wiki). In contrast, CO2’s rise has accelerated, with only a brief pause (1887-97) & a mini-reversal (1940-45), both during the 30-yr coolings.
12 This unsteady ‘sawtooth’ Modern Warming resembles the sawtooth rise of the sun’s magnetic output from 1901 toward a rare solar ‘Grand Maximum’ (GM; peak 1991), unmatched since 300AD! See Bullet 21.
13Warming reached a peak in Feb 2016. Since then, Earth has cooled >3 years. NB no mega-eruption since 1991.

14 The ‘Svensmark Theory’ says rising solar-magnetic output deflects cosmic rays, thus reducing cloudiness, allowing more of the sun’s warmth to heat the land and ocean instead of being reflected by clouds. In support, a NASA study of satellite data spanning 1979-2011 (‘Modern Warming’; Bullet 12) showed decreasing cloud cover.

15 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research vocal climate scientist Dr Stefan Rahmstorf (Wiki) wrongly said in 2008: “there is no viable alternative … [to CO2 as driver of 1940-2005 warming, as] … different authors agree that solar activity did not significantly increase”.
Yet in 1999, physicist Dr Michael Lockwood FRS (Wiki) wrote in prestigious Nature journal: “the total magnetic flux leaving the Sun has risen by a factor of 1.4 since 1964” & 2.3 since 1901 !

 

16 Lockwood showed averaged solar magnetic flux increased 230% from 1901 to 1995, i.e. more than doubled ! The final peak value was 5 times the starting minimum value ! Bullets 17 & 18 likewise back Svensmark’s theory.
17After the ~300AD solar GM (Bullet 12), in <100yrs Earth warmed to near or above today’s temperature. Then sawtooth cooling mimicked the sun’s 1,000yr sawtooth decline into the Little Ice Age (LIA).
18 From 8000 to 2000BC, Earth was sometimes warmer than now for centuries. Then unsteady cooling from 3000BC to the LIA paralleled unsteady solar decline after the ‘super-GM’ of ~3000BC.
19This 4,500yr-long cooling mocks IPCC computer models that instead predict warming by the simultaneous (slow) rise in CO2. This is the ‘The Holocene Temperature Conundrum’ of Liu et al. (2014). See also Bullet 6.

20 Embarrassingly for IPCC, the 8000-2000BC warm interval (Bullet 18) was already called the ‘Holocene Climatic Optimum’ before IPCC’s ‘CO2 = pollutant’ fallacy induced today’s AGW hysteria and pointless multi-trillion-dollar global warming industry. The warmth may have benefitted human social development.

21Since thermometer records began (1850), sawtooth global warming (Bullet 12) correlates very well with solar-magnetic flux by applying an 85yr lag, attributable to the ocean’s thermal inertia (vast volume, high heat capacity & slow mixing cause slow response to changes in solar-magnetic flux hence cloudiness), grossly underestimated by the IPCC (Bullet 22). Thus Modern Warming is driven ~100% sun, dwarfing any CO2 effect (Bullets 5, 6).
22 The IPCC assumes the time lag (Bullet 21) is much shorter (<1 year) and therefore it claims that ongoing global warming despite solar weakening (since 1991; Bullet 12) must mean that the warming is driven by CO2 !
23 The last interglacial period, about 120,000 years ago, was warmer than our Holocene interglacial. Humans and polar bears survived ! CO2 was then about 275ppm, i.e. lower than now (Bullet 8), at a time of greater warmth.
24 The joint rise of temperature & CO2 is a ‘spurious correlation’, a fluke. So IPCC demonising CO2 as a ‘pollutant’ is a colossal blunder, costing trillions of dollars in needless & ineffectual efforts to reduce it. Instead governments must focus on the imminent metre-scale sun-driven sea level rise.

25 Although the sun is now declining since its 1991 magnetic peak, sawtooth warming will continue until c.2075 due to the 85yr lag (Bullet 21). Rising CO2 will continue raising food production. Cooling will begin c.2075 & last at least 28 years (i.e. post-1991 solar decline to date). Our benign ‘interglacial’ period is likely to end by 2500AD.

26 IPCC says sea level (SL) from 0 to 1800AD varied <25cm (& <1m since 4000BC) & never exceeded today’s, so the 30cm SL rise since 1800 (& the 1.5mm/yr average rate) is abnormal, blaming industrial CO2. But this claim ignores dozens of studies of geological & archaeological 3000BC-1000AD SL benchmarks globally, showing 3 or 4 rises (& falls) of 1-3m in <200yr each (i.e. >0.5cm/yr), all reaching higher than today, long before industrial CO2.
27If we stop expanding fossil-fuel use, CO2 will soon stabilise at a new equilibrium (nearer optimum for plants).

Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, Technical Note on ResearchGate
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332245803_27_bullet_points_prove_global_warming_by_the_sun_not_CO2_by_a_GEOLOGIST_for_a_change

 

© 2019 Dr. Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd.

A scientific paper entitled “An Overview of Scientific Debate of Global Warming and Climate Change” has recently come out of the University of Karachi, Pakistan. The paper’s author, Prof. Shamshad Akhtar delves into earth’s natural temperature variations of the past 1000 years, and concludes that any modern warming trend has been hijacked by political & environmental agendas, and that the science (tackled below) has been long-ignored and at times deliberately manipulated.

The published paper–available in full HERE— sets out its intent:

Climate change is NOT a new phenomenon. The palaeo-climatic studies reveal that during the Pleistocene and Holocene periods several warm and cold periods occurred, resulting in changes of sea level and in climatic processes like the rise and fall of global average temperature and rainfall.

The United Nation’s politicizing of global warming/climate change
(via the media and summits) has made it difficult to take another look
at the subject’s scientific and academic status. But in this paper an
attempt has been made to examine the complexity of the problem in the
light of available facts related to the atmosphere and climate system:

Energy Sources for the Heating of the Atmosphere

The ultimate source of energy for the heating of earth’s surface and the atmosphere is the Sun.

Out of the total solar radiation that reaches the top of the atmosphere, about 49% reaches the earth’s surface (insolation). 31% is reflected back to space, while 20% is absorbed by the atmosphere.

This shows the atmosphere absorbs only 20% of solar radiation directly while the earth’s surface is the major source of energy for the heating of the atmosphere.

Water Vapour is the Single Largest Atmospheric Gas Rather than Carbon Dioxide

Pro human-induced global warming scientists exaggerate the contribution of carbon dioxide as a major greenhouse gas in absorbing long-wave earth’s radiation. The fact is water vapour is the single largest atmospheric greenhouse gas (2% by volume), Carbon dioxide is second (0.0385% by volume).

Water vapour contributes 95% to the greenhouse effect, all other greenhouse gases combined contribute only 5%. Furthermore, the man-made portion of carbon dioxide contributes only 0.117% to the greenhouse effect.

The IPCC does not consider water vapor a greenhouse gas in its reports.

In addition, water vapour absorbs in a much wider band of long wave radiation (4-8 micrometre and 12-70 micrometre bands), whereas Carbon dioxide absorbs in narrow bands (13-16 micrometre) and ozone absorbs in a much smaller narrow band (9-10 micrometre). Thus, water vapour absorbs in a much wider wave length band, it has the single largest greenhouse effect among all the greenhouse gases.

Earth’s Temperature Variations During the last 1000 years

Earth’s temperature was never constant.

Instead, its past temperatures varied in cyclical patterns. Earth’s temperatures for the past 1000 years have been constructed on the basis of historical records, measured temperature data and several proxy data (ice core data, tree ring analysis, pollen analysis).

Earth’s temperature pattern in the past 1000 years shows two relatively long cycles:

According to Dr. Steffensen of Neil Bohr Institute of Geophysicist, University of Copenhagen —who conducted 3km deep ice core study in Greenland— the Little Ice Age marked the lowest temperature in the last 8000 years of earth’s history, while the Medieval Warm period was about 1.5C warmer than the present day (needless to say, without the extensive burning of fossil fuels).

Scientific Facts Contradicting IPCC’s Claims of Global Warming and Climate Change

There is a large group of scientists who strongly oppose IPCC’s claims of global warming caused by human activity.

Some of the contradictions and neglecting factors are discussed
further in Prof. S. Akhtar’s full paper, which can be downloaded HERE, but I’ve created a succinct snapshot of the topics below:

The complexity of the Earth’s Climate System

Earth’s climate system consists of several interactive components — lithosphere (rocks), hydrosphere (water), cryosphere (sphere of ice), biosphere (a living organism) and atmosphere (sphere of air). There are several subsystems of these spheres which interact and develop a complex system of the climate system of the earth. Therefore, any forecast of the climate system based upon selected parameters of stimulated computer model as used by IPCC for future projection and estimation can never give a real and correct picture of global warming/climate change.

Recent Global Warming and Climate Change is because of Natural Factors

IPCC reports were not allowed to consider natural factors of climate change — even though pieces of evidence on the basis of ice cores, tree rings and historical data confirm the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age which was caused by natural processes, like these:

Effect of Urbanization and Urban Heat Island

Urban areas are much warmer than the surrounding open/rural areas because of the building materials, high density of buildings, high rise buildings, large number of vehicles and heat emissions. Since the 1970s, urban areas have grown rapidly in number and size all over the world. Very importantly, almost all the weather stations are located in cities. So rapid growth in urbanization has created a bias toward warmer temperature. This factor was also not considered by the IPCC.

Even more telling, Prof. John Christi, astrophysics of the University of Alabama, studied ground recorded temperature and found the temperature is rising while the weather satellite temperature data and air balloon recorded temperature show little change.

Global Distribution of Climatic Stations and Data Bias

Only 100 weather stations existed in 1875, all of which were located in Europe and North America. This number increased to 1,700 in 1975, and since then the number of stations has increased dramatically to 10,000 at present. Therefore, most of the stations did not exist prior to mid -the 1970s.

Also, the majority of the stations are located on the continents of the northern hemisphere, in the mid-latitudes and in urban areas — meaning our climate data set is biased towards a landmass.

The credibility of IPCC is Questioned

A major blow to IPCC credibility came on October 19, 2009, when thousands of documents and emails were leaked out by some computer hackers from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of UK’s East Anglia University. This leak came to be unimaginatively known as Climate Gate.

The documents reveal misconduct of the top IPCC climate scientists in the UK and USA in creating manufactured data about the release of carbon dioxide through the burning of fossil fuels and industries causing global warming. Some of the US governmental agencies like the US National Climate Data Centre and NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies were also involved in data manipulation.

The Hockey Stick Graph

Michael Mann’s infamous ‘Hockey Stick’ graph has two major flaws.

First, it shows that earth’s temperatures were below normal for a long period –1000AD to 1970s– then temperatures increasing dramatically since 1980s. And secondly, it also alters the long-accepted Medieval Warm Period (950 AD to 1350AD) so as to seem as colder than originally thought.

It was found out that Mann’s graph was drawn on the basis of very small ring samples (10 out of 85 samples) and by data manipulation and statistical exaggeration.

Despite these shocking revelations, the ‘Hockey Stick’ is still used in all IPCC reports. Since the IPCC’s third report in 2007, Mann’s graph has replaced the original one (which clearly identified the MWP) used in first and second reports — a change strongly criticized by many climate scientists.

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IPCC fraud revealed in two graphs.

Assessments of IPCC about Global Warming Impacts on Sea Level Rise and Glacier Melting are Incorrect and Overstated

According to IPCC reports issued 2007, global mean surface air temp has increased by 0.3C to 0.6C since the late 19th century. As a result of melting of glaciers and polar ice sheets, global sea level has risen by 15 to 20 cm over the past 100 years, and if this trend continues sea level will rise up to 50 to 80 meters by the end of 2100. Low land areas and islands like the Maldives will submerge into sea water…

Professor Nelis Axil of Stockholm University and president of International Organization of Sea level change and coastal evolution conducted several studies on the beaches of Maldives. He concluded that during the last 50 years there has no permanent rise in sea level in the area…

source: www.electroverse.net