Analysing, reviewing and recording weather patterns in Dayboro since 2004. Challenging the main stream climate change thought, by being objective and providing facts.

27 Simple Bullet Points Prove Global Warming by the Sun, not CO2
By a Geologist for a Change

  1 TThe IPCC (United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has no geologists among the 100s of authors of its last major report (2013-14) and at most 1 in the next (2022; see my Tech. Note 2019-10). Thus IPCC focuses on only the last 150 years (since thermometer records began, c. 1850), yet Earth is 30 million (sic) times older, 4.5 billion years! Geologists know Earth has always warmed and cooled. Climate change is perfectly normal.

  2 The IPCC’s very existence relies on public belief in man-made or ‘anthropogenic’ global warming (AGW) by CO2. IPCC authors, mostly government & university researchers, are biased by strong vested interests in AGW (publications; continuance of salaries; research grants). Similarly, universities have sacrificed their impartiality by hosting institutes mandated to confirm & act on AGW, e.g. Grantham Institute (Imperial College), Tyndall Centre.

  3 The often-parroted ‘97% consensus among scientists that global warming is man’s fault’ (CO2 emissions) is untrue. It refers in fact to surveys of just a relatively small group of ‘climate scientists’ (a new type of generalist scientist, with strong incentives for bias; see Bullets 2 & 15), moreover only those who are ‘actively publishing’.

  4 No educated person ‘denies’ modern global warming; it’s been measured (Bullet 11). ‘Global warming deniers’ is a deceitful term for man-made global warming doubters & deniers (most of Earth’s real scientists?).

  5 CO2 is a ‘greenhouse gas’. But as CO2 rises, its theoretical heat-trapping ability sharply declines, already 67% ‘used up’ at 100 parts per million (ppm) CO2, 84% at 300ppm (NB 275ppm when industrial CO2 output began; Bullet 8), 87% at 400ppm (today 415ppm, or 0.04%) and >99% at 1000ppm.
Moreover, Climate Sensitivity (CS), the warming due to doubling CO2, is guesswork. IPCC ‘estimates’ CS from climate models (circular reasoning) as probably between 1.5 & 4.5 (300% contrast!), but models are defective (Bullet 6). In reality CS might be very near zero, perhaps explaining why up to 7,000ppm in Phanerozoic time (Bullet 7) did not cause ‘runaway’ warming.

  6 IPCC climate models are so full of assumptions as to be useless or (worse) misleading, e.g. forecast 1995-2015 warming was 2-3 times too high! Bullet 19 gives another drastic failure.
Even Wiki (2019) admits: “Each model simulation has a different guess at processes that scientist don’t understand sufficiently well”.
Models also dismiss the sun’s fluctuations & omit the multi-decade delay between these & the resulting warming or cooling. This time-lag is due to ocean thermal inertia (mixing-time), grossly underestimated by IPCC (Bullets 15, 21)

  7 For ~75% of the last 550 million years, CO2 was 2 to 15 times higher than now. Evolution flourished, with CO2 enabling plant photosynthesis, the basis of all life. Extinction events due to overheating by CO2 are unknown.

  8 Through the last 12,000 years (our current ‘Holocene’ interglacial epoch), CO2 was a mere 250 to 290 ppm, near plant-starvation level (about 150ppm), until about 1850 when industrial CO2 emissions began, making CO2 climb steeply. CO2 today is still only 415ppm, or 0.01%, i.e. less than half of one-tenth of 1% of our atmosphere.

  9 Until man began adding CO2 about 1850, warming (determined from ‘proxies’ like tree rings) since the 1700AD Little Ice Age nadir was accompanied by slowly rising CO2 (measured in ice cores). A simple explanation is the well-known release of CO2 by warming ocean water (decreasing its CO2-holding capacity).

10 Other evidence, besides Bullet 9, that rising CO2 is a consequence, not cause, of global warming is Humlum’s demonstration that changes in CO2 growth rate lag behind changes in warming rate (by about 1 year); and also …
11 Since the ~1850 start of man’s CO2 additions, thermometer-measured global warming (1.3 degrees C) was interrupted by frequent minor coolings of 1-3yrs (not all attributable to mega-volcano ‘winters’) & two substantial coolings (0.2 deg) of 30yrs (1878-1910, 1944-1976), plus the 1998-2013 ‘warming pause’ (Wiki). In contrast, CO2’s rise has accelerated, with only a brief pause (1887-97) & a mini-reversal (1940-45), both during the 30-yr coolings.
12 This unsteady ‘sawtooth’ Modern Warming resembles the sawtooth rise of the sun’s magnetic output from 1901 toward a rare solar ‘Grand Maximum’ (GM; peak 1991), unmatched since 300AD! See Bullet 21.
13Warming reached a peak in Feb 2016. Since then, Earth has cooled >3 years. NB no mega-eruption since 1991.

14 The ‘Svensmark Theory’ says rising solar-magnetic output deflects cosmic rays, thus reducing cloudiness, allowing more of the sun’s warmth to heat the land and ocean instead of being reflected by clouds. In support, a NASA study of satellite data spanning 1979-2011 (‘Modern Warming’; Bullet 12) showed decreasing cloud cover.

15 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research vocal climate scientist Dr Stefan Rahmstorf (Wiki) wrongly said in 2008: “there is no viable alternative … [to CO2 as driver of 1940-2005 warming, as] … different authors agree that solar activity did not significantly increase”.
Yet in 1999, physicist Dr Michael Lockwood FRS (Wiki) wrote in prestigious Nature journal: “the total magnetic flux leaving the Sun has risen by a factor of 1.4 since 1964” & 2.3 since 1901 !

 

16 Lockwood showed averaged solar magnetic flux increased 230% from 1901 to 1995, i.e. more than doubled ! The final peak value was 5 times the starting minimum value ! Bullets 17 & 18 likewise back Svensmark’s theory.
17After the ~300AD solar GM (Bullet 12), in <100yrs Earth warmed to near or above today’s temperature. Then sawtooth cooling mimicked the sun’s 1,000yr sawtooth decline into the Little Ice Age (LIA).
18 From 8000 to 2000BC, Earth was sometimes warmer than now for centuries. Then unsteady cooling from 3000BC to the LIA paralleled unsteady solar decline after the ‘super-GM’ of ~3000BC.
19This 4,500yr-long cooling mocks IPCC computer models that instead predict warming by the simultaneous (slow) rise in CO2. This is the ‘The Holocene Temperature Conundrum’ of Liu et al. (2014). See also Bullet 6.

20 Embarrassingly for IPCC, the 8000-2000BC warm interval (Bullet 18) was already called the ‘Holocene Climatic Optimum’ before IPCC’s ‘CO2 = pollutant’ fallacy induced today’s AGW hysteria and pointless multi-trillion-dollar global warming industry. The warmth may have benefitted human social development.

21Since thermometer records began (1850), sawtooth global warming (Bullet 12) correlates very well with solar-magnetic flux by applying an 85yr lag, attributable to the ocean’s thermal inertia (vast volume, high heat capacity & slow mixing cause slow response to changes in solar-magnetic flux hence cloudiness), grossly underestimated by the IPCC (Bullet 22). Thus Modern Warming is driven ~100% sun, dwarfing any CO2 effect (Bullets 5, 6).
22 The IPCC assumes the time lag (Bullet 21) is much shorter (<1 year) and therefore it claims that ongoing global warming despite solar weakening (since 1991; Bullet 12) must mean that the warming is driven by CO2 !
23 The last interglacial period, about 120,000 years ago, was warmer than our Holocene interglacial. Humans and polar bears survived ! CO2 was then about 275ppm, i.e. lower than now (Bullet 8), at a time of greater warmth.
24 The joint rise of temperature & CO2 is a ‘spurious correlation’, a fluke. So IPCC demonising CO2 as a ‘pollutant’ is a colossal blunder, costing trillions of dollars in needless & ineffectual efforts to reduce it. Instead governments must focus on the imminent metre-scale sun-driven sea level rise.

25 Although the sun is now declining since its 1991 magnetic peak, sawtooth warming will continue until c.2075 due to the 85yr lag (Bullet 21). Rising CO2 will continue raising food production. Cooling will begin c.2075 & last at least 28 years (i.e. post-1991 solar decline to date). Our benign ‘interglacial’ period is likely to end by 2500AD.

26 IPCC says sea level (SL) from 0 to 1800AD varied <25cm (& <1m since 4000BC) & never exceeded today’s, so the 30cm SL rise since 1800 (& the 1.5mm/yr average rate) is abnormal, blaming industrial CO2. But this claim ignores dozens of studies of geological & archaeological 3000BC-1000AD SL benchmarks globally, showing 3 or 4 rises (& falls) of 1-3m in <200yr each (i.e. >0.5cm/yr), all reaching higher than today, long before industrial CO2.
27If we stop expanding fossil-fuel use, CO2 will soon stabilise at a new equilibrium (nearer optimum for plants).

Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd, Technical Note on ResearchGate
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332245803_27_bullet_points_prove_global_warming_by_the_sun_not_CO2_by_a_GEOLOGIST_for_a_change

 

© 2019 Dr. Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd.